There has been a flurry of diplomatic efforts in recent weeks to end the violence in Iraq. With the naming of a new defense secretary and the emergence of the Iraq Study Group's report, is the United States on the path to victory in Iraq? Of the three options (Go Big, Go Long, or Go Home), which is the best course of action to take now?
KJW:
The key to succeeding in politics these days seems to be framing your opponents position on issues with a negative sound bite. Although "Cut and Run" eventually went down in flames there is no denying that it was effectively used for many months. While I would not agree that the only options available in Iraq can be framed as "Go Big", "Go Long", or "Go Home", I will nevertheless address this latest example of the political sound bite.
For this discussion I will address the specific issues as if none of them would meet any resistance at home from the public, media or government officials. Let's just pretend for a minute that we are all sheep.
Option 1 - Go Big: I have not yet heard this option fully explained. However, let's assume for discussion purposes that it means dramatically increasing the level of our troops in Iraq and engaging in a massive military campaign. I have heard it suggested that we should start with wiping out Sadr City. Of course we would be faced with the problem of not knowing who the enemy is since they would not be wearing uniforms. But again, assuming we are sheep and such a campaign goes forward successfully, what then?
After wiping out much of the military age male population from Iraq, does anyone believe that the Sunnis and the Shiites would stop trying to kill each other? Do you believe that the Kurds would then want to resume being a part of Iraq? (Remember that Kurds are not even allowed to fly the Iraqi flag.) The fact is that the military campaign ended several years ago and we did in fact win. What we have failed to win is the post war period where diplomacy and nation building is required. Diplomacy is the only way this war is going to end in victory for anyone. Option 1 - Go Big - NO.
Option 2 - Go Long: Again I will need to assume what this means. If it means that we remain at the current troop levels with the same role that we have presently, then such an option is too ridiculous to even urge. Even W has given up on STAY THE COURSE.
However, if Go Long means that we reduce our presence and reposition our remaining troops so that they could be immediately redeployed in the event of military necessity, then that might be palatable. Such a policy would entail an ongoing reduction of troop levels within the borders of Iraq. It would also not involve any specific date for complete withdrawal from Iraq. Even upon the complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, we could continue to have an increased presence in the region with added troops positioned in Kuwait for example. These added troops would allow us to be in a position to prevent, or respond to, any intervention in Iraq from neighboring countries. Option 2 - Stay Long - YES, well sort of.
Option 3 - Go Home: I am not in favor of IMMEDIATE withdrawal from Iraq. If that occurred noone, not even W, would disagree that the resulting mayhem would constitute a civil war. In addition, such a course of action would leave the door open for Iran / Syria / Turkey to assume a role or to intervene in ways that would be negative. I believe that the Go Home option would need to involve a gradual draw down of U.S. troops over a twelve to twenty four month period. Anything faster than that would not be advisable. However, twenty four months is adequate for the Iraqi government to have plenty of time to plan for the transition and departure of the U.S. forces. Just as with the Stay Long Option we could continue to have an increased presence in the region, in order to prevent, or respond to, any intervention in Iraq from neighboring countries. Option 3 - Go Home - MAYBE.
EJS:
The United States has, with its' latest moves, given a clear signal to adversaries that we are wavering in our resolve and aren't serious about winning in Iraq any longer, but rather more interested in saving face and "managing the situation," as Nancy Pelosi has referred to it as. The naming of Robert Gates as Defense Secretary signals a change of course, but not necessarily in a way that will provide for victory. Remember, VICTORY is defined as having a stable, secure Iraq capable of governing itself, and most importantly, to have an ally in the War on Terror in the middle of the Mideast. Gates has long been in the James Baker camp, the camp that wants to negotiate with terrorist-supporting nations in order to resolve the situation. This shouldn't come as a surprise from Baker though, who's law firm represents Saudi Arabia's interests in this country. This is also a classic case of appeasement by rewarding bad behavior. In the case of Syria and Iran, this bad behavior is their continued support of terror organizations and their pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. This type of appeasement will only encourage more bad behavior.
Unfortunately, President Bush seems to have lost his resolve to secure victory in Iraq. He has buckled under intense media and political pressure. It is most unfortunate for the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, who wake up everyday and fully believe in the cause they are helping. They understand how important it is for us to win in Iraq, to support moderates in the Middle East and not give in to barbaric thugs who would use Iraq as fertile ground for terror training. They KNOW they are defending the American people, and they wish everyday that the media and people would understand this and get behind them so they can finish the job. They don't just want to "manage the situation," which means that each of their buddies' deaths went for naught. The troops want to WIN, and they know they can do it given the chance. Unfortunately, politicians and media pundits don't appear ready to give them that opportunity.
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