Will Frederick Kagan's December 14, 2006, "Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq" be the option that President Bush pursues? If so, should we support it? And most importantly, will it work?
KJW: I am frequently asked by my conservative friend, EJS, whether I want us to win in Iraq. I usually hesitate when he asks me that question. Of course he interprets that to mean that I don't want us to win. In fact, the reason that I hesitate is that I have not seen any indication that the course being followed by the Bush administration could conceivable lead to any form of "victory".
The initial military action was clearly won by the U.S. With regard to the peace, we have just as clearly been losing. So now we are faced with the question, can we reclaim victory through further military and diplomatic actions? As I have related in previous posts I believe that it will be necessary for the U.S. to remain in Iraq for at least the next 18 to 24 months regardless of the course we pursue. To do otherwise would leave Iraq in a more disastrous situation than currently exists. So should we spend that 18 to 24 months attempting to gracefully extricate ourselves from Iraq, or should we take one last shot at achieving the victory that President Bush says is the only solution?
I have read the "Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq" Plan in its entirety, not just a synopsis prepared by some commentator with an agenda. In a nutshell, The Kagan Plan calls for us to change our focus from training Iraqi soldiers to securing the Iraqi population and containing the rising violence. It urges that we send more American combat forces into Iraq, especially into Baghdad. This increase in troops would include a surge of seven Army brigades and Marine regiments. These forces, partnered with Iraqi units, would clear critical Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shi’a neighborhoods, primarily on the west side of the city. After the neighborhoods had been cleared, U.S. soldiers and marines, again partnered with Iraqis, would remain behind to maintain security. As security is established, reconstruction aid would help to reestablish normal life and, working through Iraqi officials, would strengthen Iraqi local government.
The Kagan Plan doesn't sound revolutionary in many respects. In fact, he points out such a plan was successful in containing similar ethno-religious conflict in Bosnia and Kosovo. Of course, myself and others will be left wondering if that is true, why has it taken us this long to reach a similar conclusion in Iraq? Nevertheless, if all we do is look back and analyze how the Iraq war was mishandled there would never be time to try to bring it to an end.
So, back to the issue presented in a prior post: Do we go big, go long, or go home? At that time I was against Going Big - since it had not been defined in a manner that would be to my satisfaction. I believe that the Kagan Plan would definitely be Going Big by anyone's definition.
I further believe that the Kagan Plan, or something similar, is the course of action that President George Bush intends to pursue. Despite many of my beliefs about this administration and its propensity to screw things up, if the Kagan Plan were adopted in the form I have just read, then I would support it. If it failed to achieve the intended results in 24 months, then I would support a less than graceful exit.
The initial military action was clearly won by the U.S. With regard to the peace, we have just as clearly been losing. So now we are faced with the question, can we reclaim victory through further military and diplomatic actions? As I have related in previous posts I believe that it will be necessary for the U.S. to remain in Iraq for at least the next 18 to 24 months regardless of the course we pursue. To do otherwise would leave Iraq in a more disastrous situation than currently exists. So should we spend that 18 to 24 months attempting to gracefully extricate ourselves from Iraq, or should we take one last shot at achieving the victory that President Bush says is the only solution?
I have read the "Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq" Plan in its entirety, not just a synopsis prepared by some commentator with an agenda. In a nutshell, The Kagan Plan calls for us to change our focus from training Iraqi soldiers to securing the Iraqi population and containing the rising violence. It urges that we send more American combat forces into Iraq, especially into Baghdad. This increase in troops would include a surge of seven Army brigades and Marine regiments. These forces, partnered with Iraqi units, would clear critical Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shi’a neighborhoods, primarily on the west side of the city. After the neighborhoods had been cleared, U.S. soldiers and marines, again partnered with Iraqis, would remain behind to maintain security. As security is established, reconstruction aid would help to reestablish normal life and, working through Iraqi officials, would strengthen Iraqi local government.
The Kagan Plan doesn't sound revolutionary in many respects. In fact, he points out such a plan was successful in containing similar ethno-religious conflict in Bosnia and Kosovo. Of course, myself and others will be left wondering if that is true, why has it taken us this long to reach a similar conclusion in Iraq? Nevertheless, if all we do is look back and analyze how the Iraq war was mishandled there would never be time to try to bring it to an end.
So, back to the issue presented in a prior post: Do we go big, go long, or go home? At that time I was against Going Big - since it had not been defined in a manner that would be to my satisfaction. I believe that the Kagan Plan would definitely be Going Big by anyone's definition.
I further believe that the Kagan Plan, or something similar, is the course of action that President George Bush intends to pursue. Despite many of my beliefs about this administration and its propensity to screw things up, if the Kagan Plan were adopted in the form I have just read, then I would support it. If it failed to achieve the intended results in 24 months, then I would support a less than graceful exit.
EJS: The American people owe the troops on the ground in Iraq one more shot at victory. I believe that the Kagan plan gives us the best opportunity to secure that victory.
Kagan's fundamental argument is that we need to increase our troop levels. However, he doesn't just recommend throwing troops into Iraq anywhere with no particular mission. That, he argues, would be another in a long line of blunders committed in this war. The US needs to change the military objectives in Iraq. Where before our number one priority has been training Iraqi troops to handle security, the new situation warrants that the US take the lead in establishing security in Iraq. In looking at past conflicts such as the one in the Balkans and Afghanistan, a ratio of 1 soldier for every 100 citizens seems to be the formula for stability.
Most of Iraq is calm though, so troop placement is of utmost importance. The north and south of Iraq are relatively calm, with 80% of violence occurring within a 35-mile radius of Baghdad. This would mean an increase of 50,000 US troops in and around Baghdad to establish security. These levels would ensure that once neighborhoods are cleared out, there would be sufficient forces to stay behind and secure the area. Once the capital is under control, Kagan argues that other restless areas such as Anbar province would fall in line shortly. Any military offensive must be combined with a NEW Deal type jobs program, as well as massive reconstruction. Much of the insurgents' power is derived from poor conditions. We must undermine this power by improving those conditions.
The militant Shiite problem is one that should have been squashed in 2003, but has been allowed to fester now to a point where Al Sadr's Mahdi Army now boasts 60,000 members and is being compared to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This is now listed by the Pentagon as the number one problem in Iraq, with Shiite militias causing much of the sectarian violence. Any military advance on the Shiites by strictly American forces would not be viewed by Iraqis as a constructive approach.
When confronting the Shiites, Iraqi soldiers must play a leading role.
The Kagan plan, or some parts of it, appear to be the choice most supported by President Bush at this point. He still has immense pressure on him to get out of Iraq quickly, but he has been steadfast in his approach, which should be commended. This provides the last opportunity for the US to correct past mistakes and salvage some type of "victory" in Iraq.
We cannot allow Iraq to descend into a full blown regional conflict, with Iran supporting radical Shiites, and the rest of Arabia supporting the Sunnis. This is a recipe for disaster, and would also provide a sufficient power vacuum for would-be terrorists to set up training camps in Iraq. As incoming Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said, America CANNOT afford to fail in Iraq. We will pay for that failure for generations.
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