Each of us will now set forth our respective predictions of the final overall outcome of tomorrow's election. We will also predict the specific winners in critical Senate races which may very tilt the scales one way or the other
MRB:
Senate:
Arizona: Jim Pederson (D) Jon Kyl (R)
This is my wish and hope vote. My gut tells me that Kyl will win but in the long run a change is necessary. Kyl is too much a Bushman. Pederson by 2 points.
Conn.: Ned Lamont (D) Alan Schlesinger(R) Joseph Lieberman (I)
Lieberman hurt himself earlier with his pro-war stance, but I feel he has recovered and if I get my wish that the Senate splits 50-49-1 he'll side with his former Dems in most matters. Lieberman by 5 points.
Maryland : Ben Cardin(D) Michael Steele (R)
I spent most of my adult life, 25 years worth anyway, in Maryland and lived almost all of it in Ben Cardin's district. I liked him and felt he was competent and forceful for his districts needs. He has weaknesses against Steele. He's not as dynamic for one thing. But Maryland has been such a traditional Democrat state I think when voters pull the lever it'll swing Dem. Cardin by 3 points.
Missouri: Claire McCaskill(D) Jim Talent(R)
This one pains me because I was born in Missouri where I cut my Democratic teeth on stories of Harry Truman and have watched it become more and more stubborn and cranky over the last 50 years. They seem intent on Republicanizing themselves and my sinking feeling is that they will. Talent by 3 points.
Montana: Jon Tester(D) Conrad Burns (R)
I have not followed this race but am hoping for Democratic momentum to carry it. Tester by 2 points.
New Jersey : Bob Menendez(D) Tom Kean, Jr.(R)
Menendez has done a very good job and has monority support. Kean probably would have taken this if he wasn't affiliated with the party of scandals right now and he is also a Bushman at heart. Menendez by 5 points.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown(D) Mike DeWine(R)
This should be a no contest victory for Brown. Brown by 4 points.
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey(D) Rick Santorum(R)
Pennsylavania, a state where I have spent much time, should be ashamed for letting a man like Santorum represent it for this long. He's an embarrassment to the entire Senate. Casey by 4 points.
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse(D) Lincoln Chafee(R)
Another race which I haven't followed closely and have to rely on the good sense of Rhode Island Dems for guidance. Whitehouse, a man named for the job, by 3 points.
Tennessee: Harold Ford(D) Bob Corker (R)
I have two friends in Tennessee who I called about this . They think it's too close to call so, again, this is my wish vote. Ford by 2 points.
Virginia: Jim Webb (D) George Allen(R)
Could Allen have made any more blunders throughout this campaign. Again, this is a state I have spent almost as much time in as Maryland and realize it's a tough Republican enclave. But really, how much embarrassment is a state willing to tolerate? Webb by 3 points.
If I get my way and I am right on only 50% of these predictions (if my math is right) then I will be able to see the balanced Senate I'd like to see where discussions are designed to convince the swing votes. This way we will get real dialogue and bi-partisan decision making taking place. That is a real power the President will just not be capable of dealing with.
House:
It's in the House where politics becomes very local and from what I've observed where some of the most viscious battles are being waged. The one here in Arizona in the 5th District, where I live, between incumbent J.D. Hayworth (R) and challenger Harry Mitchell (D) is typical. The dirty tricks team of the Republicans that we all thought died with Nixon and Co. is alive and well. Robo-calling to irritate the Democrats? Really. It, like many other battles, will be a fight to the finish. But the Dems will pick up 15 seats at least acrossed the board.
KJW:
Senate:
Arizona: Jim Pederson (D) Jon Kyl (R)
Although Jim Pederson seems to have made some movement lately, Jon Kyl will nevertheless win this race by 8 points or more. As an Arizona resident I am voting in this race. As recently as the day before this election I had thought that I would vote for Jon Kyl for reasons related to the benefit to our state if John McCain is elected President. After reviewing my rationale, EJS told me that when I got into the voting booth I would end up voting for Pederson. The fact is that he is right. Although there are lots of factors that might benefit Arizona if Jon Kyl remains our Senator, I realize that there is no way I can bring myself to vote for him. Even though his candidacy is destined to fail, I will be voting for Jim Pederson.
Conn.: Ned Lamont (D) Alan Schlesinger(R) Joseph Lieberman (I)
Joseph Lieberman will win this race going away and will declare himself to be a Democrat once again. Lieberman by 10+ points.
Maryland : Ben Cardin(D) Michael Steele (R)
Ben Cardin will win this race by 3 points.
Missouri: Claire McCaskill(D) Jim Talent(R)
This will be one of the closest races of the election. I have gone back and forth on this one. In close races I tend to anticipate the incumbent will ultimately prevail. This race will be an exception. McCaskill by 3 points.
Montana: Jon Tester(D) Conrad Burns (R)
This is the other race which is almost too close to call. Burns was given up for dead at one point but has made this a race again. I think he will fall just short. Tester by 3 points.
New Jersey : Bob Menendez(D) Tom Kean, Jr.(R)
Menendez by 8 points.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown(D) Mike DeWine(R)
I believe that Mike DeWine should already be packing his office. Brown by 8 points.
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey(D) Rick Santorum(R)
Another candidate that if I owned a Washington area moving company I would drop off a flyer today. Casey by 9 points.
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse(D) Lincoln Chafee(R)
This race shows that soon there will be no room for moderates / centrists in the Republican party. Chafee is the most liberal Republican to serve and will soon be writing his memoirs. Whitehouse wins by 5 points.
Tennessee: Harold Ford(D) Bob Corker (R)
If I were a resident of Tennessee I would vote for Harold Ford. Unfortunately, for Ford neither myself, nor enough people who think like me live in Tennessee. Corker by 9 points.
Virginia: Jim Webb (D) George Allen(R)
Six months ago noone would have imagined that this seat would be in play. Not only has this race become in play but Senator Allen's Presidential aspirations have vanished. Senator Allen wins by 3 points.
FINAL SENATE RESULTS: (R) 50 (D) 49 (I) 1 *
* Joseph Lieberman will thereafter reaffirm his alignment with the Democratic party.
FINAL - FINAL SENATE RESULTS: (R) 50 (D) 50 **
** Vice President, Richard Cheney, becomes THE DECIDER, breaking all tie votes.
House: The historic trend has been that when one house of Congress changes hands both houses change hands. This year will be an exception. As you will note I have the Republicans and Democrats ending up 50 / 50 in the Senate. Such a tie would involve the Vice President casting any required tiebreaking votes. The Republicans will not be so lucky in the House.
FINAL HOUSE RESULTS: (R) 215 - (D) 219 - (I) 1
EJS:
Senate:
Arizona: Jim Pederson (D) Jon Kyl (R)
The polls have shown Pederson closing the gap in the last couple of weeks. Close race, but the advantage Republicans enjoy in Arizona will be seen here. Jon Kyl is a good senator and will win this race by five to ten points.
Conn.: Ned Lamont (D) Alan Schlesinger(R) Joseph Lieberman (I)
Lieberman must have been snickering in a corner somewhere last week when Democrats were running from the John Kerry fallout. Lieberman wins this one going away, and it will be interesting to see his interaction with fellow Dems after this.
Maryland : Ben Cardin(D) Michael Steele (R)
Here is my sleeper. Steele definelty has the momentum in this race, and has exposed Cardin in recent days as not being up-to-date on Maryland issues, specifically the planned extension of the Metro system there. Also, notable black Democrats from Prince George's County endorsed him last week. This is big, as Steele is only counting on about 12% of the black vote. Anything over this is gravy and will insure his victory. I look for Steele to pull the upset by one to three points.
Missouri: Claire McCaskill(D) Jim Talent(R)
The Republican GOTV machine will be evident in this result. The party has put tons of money into this state to insure the rural voters get out. McCaskill and the Democrats are no where near as organized and the polls are reflecting only the urban population centers now. Look for Talent to defeat Claire "Clone Em" McCaskill by less than five points.
Montana: Jon Tester(D) Conrad Burns (R)
Montana is solid red and Burns has the momentum here. The GOP ground game wins this one as well. Burns barely retains his seat despite the Abramoff allegations.
New Jersey : Bob Menendez(D) Tom Kean, Jr.(R)
Even though Menendez is one of the most corrupt candidates in the race, he will win in blue New Jersey. Must be a Sopranos thing or something there. Kean is a RINO anyways. Menendez by 5 to 10 points.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown(D) Mike DeWine(R)
DeWine is done. The implosion of the GOP in Ohio is complete. Sherrod wins big.
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey(D) Rick Santorum(R)
Santorum will bite the dust, but it will be closer than people think. His support of the war and closeness to the Bush administration has doomed him here though, as Pennsylvania is turning bluer and bluer. Casey by less than five points.
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse(D) Lincoln Chafee(R)
If you're going to have a liberal, lets have a REAL liberal, not one trying to disguise himself with an R next to his name. Good riddance Chafee. Whitehouse by 10 points.
Tennessee: Harold Ford(D) Bob Corker (R)
This has been the most vicious race this year. Bob Corker has run a ruthless campaign against Harold Ford, Jr, and has done a wonderful job of painting him as a Kennedy/Kerry liberal. This won't fly in down-home Tennessee. Corker wins this race by 5 to 10 points.
Virginia: Jim Webb (D) George Allen(R)
George Allen has tried at every turn to lose this race. He has stumbled and bumbled his way to Election Day finally. He will barely retain his seat, but this disastorous race has dashed his 2008 Presidential aspirations, and boosted those of Mitt Romney as the conservative alternative to McCain. Allen by less than five points.
House:
The House is where the GOP is going to pay the price for the Bush administrations' performance over the past two years. They get the blame for Iraq, the deficit, etc. Democrats pick up 15 to 25 seats and take control of the House. Nancy Pelosi is the next Speaker of the House. Hopefully this only lasts two years.
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