Which Presidential hopefuls are in the best position for 2008? Which ones are not ?

With the midterm elections behind us now, which candidates are best positioned for a Presidential run in 2008, and whose Presidential aspirations may have vanished?

MRB:

The horns and party hats of the Democrats' celebration are barely put away and the cap has been screwed on the bottle of Scotch the Republicans used to drown their sorrows and we are already predicting 2008. 2008? That sounds so close and there is so much to do. I am having a hard time thinking that far ahead right now. My feeling is that we need at least the proverbial 100 days to let the Democrats settle in, and by that I don't mean measuring for new drapery.

During this time a couple of things will happen. Not the least important of which will be the emergence of who the new leadership will comprise and how they get this early, crucial job done. It will also reveal who in the Republican party will emerge as the leaders most willing to help right the wrongs they perpetrated for the last 12 years. It's going to be an interesting morality play that unfolds. I hope it won't be a soap opera.

Unlike my colleagues here at 3HM I do not have a long speculative list of contenders at this point nor does it contain any surprises or hidden unknowns. The names are on everyone's mind right now.

As I see it today and today only, the Democrats will nominate a twosome from Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Personally I think Mrs. Clinton is the weakest candidate primarily because she is Mrs. Clinton. Apart from her own divisivness, I don't think the country could deal with Mr. Clinton as First Gentleman. The inevitable question of who was running the country would arise. Is Bill getting a backdoor entre to another four years? That's too problematic. Edwards / Obama would be a better combination with North, South, Black, White represented. For the time being that is as deep as my list gets for the Democrats. Oh, yes. One more thing. If John Kerry just sits this one out and takes up thumb twiddling as a hobby we'd appreciate it.

Right now McCain seems to be the Republican front runner because he is moderate, willing to compromise, has the public presence to carry him, and seems to be capable of believably taking the high road in disagreements. The others I see right now as contenders are Mitt Romney, Rudy Guilliani, and perhaps Bill Frist. The combinations with these four in either president or vice-president chairs are endless. It's odd about Guilliani, but for all the time he was mayor of New York, I never thought of him as a Republican, just as a good mayor. That can only help him. They each represent different parts of the country but do have a unified conservative point of view for now.

That's as close as I can get right now. I'm sure we'll address this once again in 100 days. Stay tuned.


KJW:

REPUBLICAN PARTY:

Top Ten Contenders:

1. Senator John McCain (R-Arizona) - Clear front runner. Probably his nomination to lose.
2. Governor Mitt Romney (R-Massachusetts) - At this point looks to be McCain's biggest challenger. Governors have a way better track record being elected President than do Senators.
3. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tennessee) - Another possible contender for the nomination. His ability to carry South could be the key.
4. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (R-New York) - Has benefit of national name recognition; however, ability to carry South is questionable. As someone originally from the South I can tell you that a person from New York faces an uphill battle in Dixie.
5. Governor Mike Huckabee (R-Arkansas) - Another Southern Governor. Lacks the name recognition at this time.
6. Governor George Pataki (R-New York) - Has benefit of having been Governor, but also faces same issues that Giuliani faces in South.
7. Senator Chuck Hagel (R-Nebraska) - Longshot. Another one who lacks name recognition.
8. Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kansas) - Another longshot.
9. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Georgia) - Incredible name recognition. Could possibly get nomination in right circumstances but is definitely not electable. Polarizes public like Hillary Clinton.
10. Secretary of State Condoleezza "Condi" Rice (R-California) - Definitely not electable. Does not have the charisma necessary to succeed in a campaign.

DEAD ON ARRIVALS:

1. Senator George Allen (R-Virginia) - Chances of election as President are over.
2. Senator Rick Santorum (R-Pennsylvania) - Another D.O.A. hopeful.

DEMOCRATIC PARTY:

Top Ten Contenders:

1. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-New York) - Clear front runner. Her nomination to lose. In my opinion she is not electable. She polarizes public opinion tremendously. People love her or hate her.
2. Former Senator John Edwards (D-North Carolina) - Tremendously appealing candidate. If Hillary stumbles he is positioned to pounce.
3. Senator Evan Bayh (D-Indiana) - Another appealing candidate. Needs more exposure nationally.
4. Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois) - The clear rising star in the party. However, I don't believe that he is electable. Definitely will be on nominee's Vice Presidential short list.
5. Governor Bill Richardson (D-New Mexico) - Benefit of being Governor, as well as prior experience on national level.
6. Senator Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska) - Longshot.
7. Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-South Dakota) - Another longshot.
8. Senator Chris Dodd (D-Connecticut) - Another long longshot.
9. Senator Russ Feingold (D-Wisconsin) - If country is in mood to move to extreme left he is the candidate. Not going to happen. Not electable.
10.Former General Wes Clark (D-Arkansas) - Extreme longshot. Probably has no chance.

DEAD ON ARRIVALS:

1. Senator John Kerry (D-Massachusetts) - His chance has come and gone. Has done nothing to help his chances in last two years. His comments about military in the last week of the 2006 election hurts his chances.
2. Former Vice President Al Gore (D-Tennessee) - Ummm, no.

EJS:

Political junkies on both sides of the spectrum shift their collective focus now to potential 2008 candidates. We always hear complaints about presidential campaigning starting too early, but the truth is, it's been going on since the LAST presidential election. We have seen candidates such as Hillary Clinton and John McCain moving gradually to the center over the last couple of years. Another sad but true fact of American politics: you HAVE to have money to do well. And this race will be no exception. The commonly accepted number is $100 million. That is more than likely what a candidate will need to be considered legitimate. Hillary has a clear advantage in this category, as the Clinton campaign machine is tried and true. With her husband being a living political legend, Hillary should have no problem in the finance department. Any potential Democratic candidate needs to have at least $60 million in the bank one year from now if they expect to challenge her for the nomination. So that works out to about one million dollars a week, not an easy task. So, financially, we can eliminate quite a few potential candidates.

On the Democratic side, I believe the best possible candidate they could put up would be John Edwards. With the South being the new heart of the Republican party, it is a must that any Democrat be able to win a few of those states. Edwards follows in the Clinton mold: a southern Democrat who poses himself as a populist and champion of the working class. Not to mention the family and the looks. John Edwards is the total package and he strikes fear in my heart as a conservative. Hopefully the Democrats aren't smart enough to realize this.

John Kerry still has some funds left from his 2004 run. Unfortunately, he still has the reputation from 2004 as well: a tax-and-spend Massachusetts liberal. His comments before the 2006 election did not help any. He should save everyone's time and money and just serve out the rest of his life term in Taxachussetts.

Ditto for Algore. The hypocrisy he has demonstrated with his push on global warming would provide lots of material for the opposition. His comments deriding the United States on foreign soil probably won't help either.

Barack Obama is an interesting case. As I stated before, he's probably not electable now, but will more than likely run in the primary and will be looking to be #2 on someone's ticket. Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Wesley Clark, etc. are just fillers during the primary and have no legitimate chance.

On the Republican side, it is John McCain's turn. He has paid more than his fair share of dues in the Senate. While being in the Senate usually acts as a hindrance for any candidate due to the long voting record available for attack, McCain's role as a maverick will help him, as it is hard to pigeon-hole him with a label. He has been on both sides of multiple issues. Seen as a bipartisan and moderate, he is probably the strongest candidate the Republicans can put up.

George Allen's collapse in Virginia has opened the door for another conservative alternative to McCain to step forward. That alternative comes to us in the form of Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. Word on the street is that he will announce the formation of an exploratory committee within the next couple of months. Widely unknown just a year ago, he has been getting more and more pub lately. Hopefully his being a Latter-Day Saint won't hurt him. An early win in neighboring New Hampshire could spell the end for John McCain.

You thought social conservatives crucified John McCain in South Carolina in 2000? Wait until they get their hands on Rudy Giuliani. He may have done great in New York after 9/11, but that won't be enough to carry him to the nomination. Too liberal socially to make it through the process. Ditto for George Pataki.

Newt Gingrich is one of the smartest Republicans out there still, but his personal baggage makes any possible candidacy virtually impossible. Way too much material for the opposition to seize on. Look for him to be in the cabinet of any Republican elected.

Sam Brownback of Kansas is a solid conservative, but probably too unknown, and has the baggage of being in the Senate. Ditto for Bill Frist, who has no personality.

My prediction: John McCain wins the Presidency in 2008 over Hillary Clinton in another extremely close and divisive election.