President Bush has mainly been talking about economic and diplomatic isolation, however, the administration is also leaving open the option of military action. The question is this: if the economic and diplomatic options do not succeed, should the U.S. (or Israel) launch a pre-emptive military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities ?
MRB:
Before we do anything rash against Iran we have to exhaust every single negotiable point we have. Certainly nuclear weapons are a serious issue. But we have to make absolutely sure that Iran has them and, most importantly, intends to use them against Israel or any other country or population it deems unfit according to fundamentalist Islamic rule.
There is a delicate cat and mouse game going on here. We are assuming that Ahmadinejad does, in fact, have nuclear weapons. What if this is just bluster? What if our intelligence is again wrong? Do we go charging in to "liberate" yet another Arab country on a whim and undocumentable claims of Weapons of Mass Destruction? I hope not. President Ahmandinejad has to understand, even in his lunatic anger and rage and rantings, that any nuclear strike would be suicidal. I'm certain that every country which currently has nuclear capability would launch a strike so severe against Iran that there would be very little country or citizenry left.
Frank McManus, in the November 19, 2006, Los Angeles Times puts forward an argument that has crossed my mind a few times. ( http://www.latimes.com/search/la-tm-poker45nov05,0,3065105.story ) Entitled "Bluff" the article likens the Iranian stance, and most other chest puffery for that matter, as a game of Texas Hold 'Em poker. Even though we Americans invented poker as we know it today a very similar game has been played in Iran for at least 250 years before we were ever a country. Called As-Nas (My Beloved Ace) it is a bluffing game requiring as much skill in watching your opponent and his quirks as it does knowing percentage strategies. We have spent a lot of time wringing our Western hands about how the Middle-East just isn't like us. Our stategies have been to convince and coerce and entice them into being like us (read Iraq here if you like). Maybe we have to learn how to play their game. Maybe we need to learn how to be really good poker or As-Nas players. One other thing Mr. McManus points out is that only one country other than the U.S. has produced more than one World Series of Poker champion and that is Iran.
We always liken diplomacy to a chess game (a game which also orginated in the Mideast, by the way). But as McManus points out, with chess all your pieces are exposed and all your options are on view by your opponent and though there may be limitless moves available there is really only one good move that will win the game. In poker very often the strongest hand does NOT win the game.
Mr. McManus also quotes former Secretary of State Warren Christopher who warns that "Iranian negotiators deploy 'bazaar behavior' resembling that of a 'Middle Eastern marketplace, with outlandish demands, feints at abandoning the process and haggling over minor details up to the last minute.' Secreatary Christopher should know what he's talking about. He negotiated the release of the American hostages in 1979. Ever gone to buy a new car? Do you always feel you've been snookered no matter how good the deal is that you think you've struck? Same thing.
The point I'm trying to make is that the United States has not even begun, at least to my satisfaction, to learn to play the opponents' game -- and win. We continue arrogantly to demand they play our way, or else. With nuclear mass destruction at stake we can't afford to be bluffed into a catastrophic first strike. Or let them.
That misunderstood twitch of the left eye could be the end of the world as we know it.
KJW:
Israel's Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, speaking ahead of his recent meeting with President Bush, said regarding Iran's nuclear capacity, "I don't want to measure it in days or weeks, but it's quite close, and we have to join forces in order to stop it because this is a serious danger to many countries, amongst them Israel, and this is a moral obligation that we all have. And I think that we all understand it will not happen, it can't happen, we will not tolerate the possession of nuclear weapons by Iran."
If the U.S. or Israel decided to make a first strike there are multiple scenario's that could be considered. One first strike scenario would involve a quick and limited strike against nuclear-related facilities accompanied by a threat to resume bombing if Iran responded with terrorist attacks in Iraq or elsewhere.
Another first strike scenario would involve a more ambitious campaign of bombing and sending cruise missiles to level targets well beyond nuclear facilities, such as Iranian intelligence headquarters, the Revolutionary Guard and some in the government.
When Prime Minister Olmert was asked whether Israel would launch a pre-emptive military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, all the Prime Minister would say was that he hoped it would never have to reach that stage. However, don't forget that Israel bombed Iraq's Osirak nuclear plant in 1981 to prevent it from being used to develop weapons.
I must say that I am beginning to lean toward a first strike option. Although, neither first strike scenario described above sounds ideal, both sound better to me than taking no action and allowing Iran to join the nuclear club.
Nonetheless, I don't want us to make the same mistake we made in Iraq. That mistake is to start something before it has been fully thought through and an exit strategy (or post strike strategy in this case) has been developed and settled upon.
Despite having taken this position, I do believe that sitting across the table from your enemy is appropriate. Even the hero of every neo-con, Ronald Reagan, believed that to be true. However, sitting across the table from an enemy while they take steps to develop and likely use nuclear weapons against you or your allies is not the position we should place ourselves in. The bottom line is that the minute Iran has nuclear capability its unstable leader will be prepared to use them and we must do whatever it takes to make sure that doesn't happen.
EJS:
It's 1939 all over again. Hopefully we don't have a Chamberlain coming back waving a piece of paper and saying, "He only wants a small piece of territory!" The policy of appeasement is a proven loser. Someone must confront this religious fanatic named Ahmadinejad, as he is the next Hitler, and if he gets the bomb he will use it. Ahmadinejad believes he is in office in order to foster armageddon and believes the way to do this is through a nuclear attack on Israel. He must be confronted, and unfortunately it doesn't appear anyone besides the US and Israel has the fortitude to do it. The United Nations is a broken organization, too rank with corruption to be effective in handling anything, even humanitarian efforts (see Oil for Food scandal).
Will the US and Israel do anything about it? George Bush seems to be the epitome of the term "lame-duck" now. He is out of political capital, and doesn't appear ready to do anything militarily. Israel is coming off their first loss in a conflict ever, in the embarrassing display against Hezbollah earlier this year. Israel has been taken over by the centrist Kadima party, who doesn't appear as apt to fight for Israel's right to exist. If Israel doesn't put the Likud party back in power with Benjamin Netanyahu at the helm, they are committing suicide as a nation.
The bottom line is this: Israel cannot afford to wait for the UN to act. They must pressure the US to help them in a first-strike on nuclear facilities within Iran. Mind you, Iran is VERY different from Iraq, and I am not advocating a full-scale ground invasion. But we must have a widespread bombing campaign to make sure we get all of the facilities and set them back far enough that it will take a few years off their progress. Much of Iran's nuclear program is kept in fortified underground bunkers, which may require nuclear-tipped bunker buster bombs. These tactical nukes are meant to be very focused in their fallout. This is a threat that must be taken seriously, and one that we will have to deal with sooner or later. Hopefully it is sooner rather than later.
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